Martin Lewis says Trump tariffs will bring UK energy bills down 'but only a little'

Donald Trump’s new trade tariffs are rippling through global energy markets, and UK households could feel the benefit.

According to MoneySavingExpert founder Martin Lewis, the “Trump effect” is helping to drive down wholesale energy prices, which means a small drop in domestic bills is likely this summer.

The change comes in the wake of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on imports, which have pulled down oil and gas prices, granting a reprieve for homeowners seeing energy price rises.

The Trump effect explained

At the centre of this energy price shift is President Trump’s latest policy move: sweeping new tariffs on imports into the United States.

While aimed at protecting American manufacturers, the knock-on effect has been a global wave of economic uncertainty, and that’s affecting energy prices.

“It was meant to be an economic disruptor. It has certainly been an economic disruptor,” Lewis said, adding that Trump’s tariffs have stoked fears of a US or global recession.

With recession fears come lower predictions for demand, especially for oil and gas. That has driven wholesale prices down, which is where the 'Trump effect' begins to filter into UK energy bills.

“The oil price has dropped. And the big one for setting UK gas and electricity prices is the gas price. And the gas price has dropped too,” Lewis explained.

Lewis predicts a 6-8% drop in price cap

Martin Lewis says UK energy bills will fall slightly this summer, but not nearly as much as people might hope.

“Will the Trump effect mean your energy bills in the UK get cheaper? The short answer is: yes, but only a little,” he said. “Nothing to write home about.”

Lewis expects the July 2025 Energy Price Cap to fall by around 6% to 8%, thanks in part to a steep drop in wholesale gas prices - down about 40% from their peak in February. However, he explained that households won’t see savings on the same scale, due to the way the cap is calculated.

“The Price Cap is based on a time-lagged three-month average,” Lewis explained. “The data used runs from mid-February to mid-May, so only part of the recent drop in prices will be included.”

He estimates that just “one or two percent” of the upcoming cap cut is directly due to what he calls the “Trump effect” – tariffs that have weakened global energy demand and pushed prices down.

While that impact is real, Lewis stressed it’s modest: “It’s barely enough to make up for the 6.4% rise people saw in April.”

Can Trump cause bigger savings later?

Could continued economic slowdown in the US drive energy prices even lower? Possibly. But the lagging nature of the UK’s energy price system means that any big savings would come slowly.

“If prices continue to stay low, then it would be the October Price Cap and the following January Price Cap that would be lower,” Lewis said. But, he added, “That’s really crystal ball gazing.”

In other words, while President Trump’s trade policy has unexpectedly cooled global energy markets, UK customers won’t benefit much - at least not immediately.

And Lewis had a final energy saving tip for anyone getting too excited by graphs showing energy prices crashing: “It will bring prices down, but it ain’t going to be bringing them down a lot - not unless something far more drastic happens. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news.”